My brother Bill is a surgeon in the Seattle area. He sent me this article from the Washington Post:
"Coronavirus will radically alter the US: Here's what may lie ahead based on math models, hospital projections, and past pandemics."
Thank you so much to the authors: Joel Achenbach, William Wan, Carolyn Y. Johnson, and Ben Guarino.
Very helpful to see rough outline of the next year or more--a series of bumps in the curve if we social distance correctly and a year or more of social distancing.
In a nutshell:
1) A flat curve lasts longer than that curve that shoots up and then down. It slows the rate at which people catch the virus, so it doesn't overwhelm the hospitals, but overall it's a year to 18 months until most people have been exposed and we have vaccines for Covid-19.
2) Expect 2.2 million deaths in the US (population 328 million) if there are no changes in social and work habits; 1.1 million if there are some changes. We're unlikely to get to the limited outbreak seen by South Korea because we lost time, the whole month of February.
3) Quote from article: "Most deaths will be driven by an overwhelmed health system."
4) In 1918 "Economic pressure on business owners and workers caused the public to resist adopting restrictions."
Flatten the curve!
READ MORE in the Washington Post: